Suffer No Futurists
Why I Don't Take Their Predictions Too Seriously and Neither Should You
Futurists like to make extravagant claims about the future, but should we take them seriously? Let’s consider an example and see how it goes.
Ray Kurzweil, one of the most famous futurists, was recently reported to have predicted that we’ll soon become immortal. So what sense, if any, can we make of this?
Well, for one thing, that’s assuming it’s even possible for a mortal being to become immortal, but I don’t see how that could ever be the case.
To be mortal means to be subject to death, i.e., death for such a being is always possible. Conversely, to be immortal means to not be subject to death, i.e., death for such a being is never possible. How then can a mortal being become immortal?
Suppose technology is invented that prevents death by natural causes for mortal beings. There’s still a way out—by suicide—and even if one doesn’t know how to do it, death is nonetheless always possible. On the other hand, death is impossible for an immortal being no matter what. So, when you think about it, Kurzweil’s claim doesn’t make any sense, but Kurzweil isn’t an idiot, so maybe he meant something else.
Perhaps he meant, although we’ll remain mortal, we will soon have technology that’ll prevent death by natural causes. But then why call it immortality?
I don’t know why he calls it that but, more importantly, I know his claim is false. So, at best he’s confused and at worst he’s a charlatan. In any case, I don’t see why we should take futurists any more seriously than we do, say, psychics or astrologers.
I’ll close with a joke: A futurist walks into a bar and orders a pint. He takes a sip and tells the bartender ‘in the future, I won’t see another bad day’. The confused bartender asks him what he does for a living and he tells her that his job involves foreseeing the future. He then chugs his pint and asks for the bill. The bartender rings a bell and a bouncer appears. The bouncer grabs the futurist and removes his eyes. The futurist, unable to see, stumbles into the bartender and says to her ‘I f***ing knew it’.